It was a day full of sunshine and our temperatures responded with a high of 56 at Philly Int’l(set at 2:46pm)! Granted our average high is just 42 so to be 14 degrees ABOVE average was a HUGE treat! Although we were still ten degrees off of the record high set back in 2008 I hope you savored the flavor because you knew it wasn’t going to last….
We have high pressure pushing offshore and this will allow for a low pressure area from the Gulf of Mexico to slide north(and bring plenty of moisture with it); there will be the potential for over an inch of rain to fall from late Sunday afternoon through the overnight before the low pushes to the north by sunrise Monday. High temperatures will be around 50 which ensure this is ONLY rain; there is a cold front out to the west that is helping to “steer” this low away quickly, but the catch is behind the low and front there is Arctic air. This will lead to highs just in the middle 30s on New Year’s Eve, but just in the upper 20s on New Year’s Day!
If that wasn’t enough, as the cold front pushes offshore there may be a wave of low pressure riding along it; although moisture should stay offshore there may be plenty of clouds across the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey on Tuesday. As for New Year’s Day there is a short wave trough that will be pushing through the Great Lakes and can produce some snow showers(with an inch or two of snow possible in the higher elevations, but elsewhere just a dusting on the grass and colder surfaces).
After that there has been talk of a coastal system for Thursday going into Friday with a potential of lots of snow; the thing is that there’s TWO pieces of energy that have to phase(in other words, come together)! There is a cold front that will push in from the north and then a system from the Gulf of Mexico that will slide across the Southeastern United States and then ride up along the East Coast. If these two phase we could see some measurable snowfall as there would be sufficient cold air in place(but along the coast with water temperatures between 43-45 degrees there can be a mix to rain), BUT right now I have the strange suspicion that the coastal will move quicker than the front and we’ll get a snow-to-rain event and then once the front pushes through it reinforces cold air so we would have a “Round 2” as snow. This would be reminiscent of February 8th, 2013 where meteorologists were forecasting 1-2 FEET of snow from Philly up to New York City as the same scenario was progged by the model output data! As for me I forecasted that the two systems wouldn’t phase in time and we’d just get a few inches of snow; that verified beautifully proving that the model output isn’t gold! And yet, I’m still sitting on the sidelines……
Anyway, I’ll keep you posted in the days to come; for now you can check out the 7-day forecast any time at www.scottderekwx.com/forecast.html.